Circulating around the blogosphere (hat tip, this instance, Froggy Ruminations) is the news that Osama bin Laden is almost certainly dead. The reason people give for believing that is no one can imagine anything else that would shut him up.
I heard someone say, shortly after the war in Afghanistan started, the best possible result in that war would be if we all knew for a fact that bin Laden was dead, but had no way to prove it.
Alive and in prison, he'd be a martyr, and a focus for people to take hostages as random for his release. Provably dead, he'd be a martyr. One or more of his followers could step up and rally the troops behind the dead leader's banner. And martyrs can only be killed once.
In Schroedinger's box, as he is now, he's not a martyr. He may be alive, awaiting his chance for a glorious comeback, and he would probably be most unkind to anyone who anointed himself head of the movement during his hiatus. Or he might have decided not to risk his skin on the cause, and be in hiding. Not a very inspiring example of leadership.
The comments to Matt's post raise other reasons why it's useful to keep Osama in Schroedinger's box, neither alive nor dead. Among these reasons, Bush's opponents have done their level best to spin anything that is not a direct attack on Osama bin Laden as a "distraction". Because Saddam Hussein did not sit down at a table and plot the 9/11 attacks with Osama, taking him down was a "distraction". Anything not directly and immediately related to the 9/11 attacks is a "distraction" – and therefore optional.
If Osama's body turns up, what will happen?
Well, one thing that will not happen: John Kerry, John Edwards (not the one who talks to dead people), Ted Kennedy, and the rest of the Left Wing will not congratulate Bush on a job well done.
Instead, they will demand that all the troops be brought home at once – "now the mission is accomplished". There will be a constant drumbeat to the effect that soldiers are being needlessly retained and kept in harm's way after the job is done.
There will be enough spin on the story to separate blood into its component layers.
(OK, I know. The candidate for Veep is Edwards and the guy who talks to dead people is Edward, but it was too much to resist.)
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