How I profited from the Tucson shooting

Within minutes of the announcement that a Congresswoman had been shot in Tucson, the web was awash in a flood of speculation about who the shooter would turn out to be, and what would turn out to make him tick. One of my facebook friends posted a link to the announcement along with his comment: "I bet the shooter gets all his news from Fox News."

So I posted a comment asking how much he'd be willing to bet. He suggested, "A nice dinner at a fancy restaurant."

Monday morning, he conceded that he had lost the bet. At my suggestion as to what I'd consider a "nice enough" dinner at a "fancy enough" restaurant, he mailed me a $20 gift card for Souplantation. (I was being nice, and so did not suggest Ruth's Chris, Gulliver's, or Yamashiro.)

Now what would have led me to make that sort of bet? I should point out I've been blessed with Dennis Prager's instinct for gambling. I could easily walk out of a casino with a million dollars in winnings, but I'd have to walk in with two or three million to gamble with. If I'm going to bet on something, I want it to be along the lines of Hideko Kawasaki and Ted Baxter.

My bet -- my willingness to take someone up on his bet -- was based on a difference in theories we held. My theory is that the people who watch Fox News -- and indeed, any of the news outlets -- are decent people, and are not being exposed to propaganda that is revving them up to go out and slay the evil opposition. In particular, the tendency to dismiss Fox News as "Faux News" or "Fox Noise" is part of an ongoing smear campaing, aiming to delegitimize the messanger because they can't handle the message. Because of this, I figured the shooter was no more likely than anyone else in the population to watch Fox News -- maybe a 10% chance. Not bad odds, but not quite enough to make me jump on the bet.

If we stipulate that Fox News viewers are predoinantly conservative, I note that conservatism (in contradistinction to liberalism) does not encourage people to think of themselves as victimized by others. There are other ideas I see as linked with conservatism and not liberalism, such as personal responsibility, being responsible for one's own actions, and the like. On balance, I think this is enough to have driven nutcases away from Fox News and other conservative outlets.

If a person sufficiently unbalanced to commit this sort of rampage follows any sort of news source at all, my theory is that the conservative message from Fox News (and Townhall and NRO) will drive such a person away. Far more congenial would be news outlets that give him permission to blame his troubles on Sexism, Intolerance, Xenophobia, Homophobia, Islamophobia, Racism, and/or Bigotry.

So I offered to take him up on his bet.

So far, my theory seems to be a good one.