With over 48 hours now past since the initial incident, an analysis of knowns and unknowns is warranted. It is important that the American public access and understand this information, particularly those who live and work in the New York City metro area, for 'home' remains Target New York.
It would at first appear likely that the bomb maker had very little hands-on training if any, with little indication any training would be to the level expected of an al-Qaeda or Taliban explosives training camp in Pakistan or elsewhere. It would therefor also be reasonable then to suspect that the bomb maker was likely following instructions - either written in a book or manual or acquired via the Internet in either a web posting or, perhaps less likely due to security risks, via e-mail exchanges. As we will soon see, considering other information now known, this may all be very wrong assumptions to make. This nevertheless begins to give us clues to the question of who. First, back to the what.
The contents of the vehicle, a Nissan Pathfinder SUV, included two plastic five-gallon containers of gasoline, three metal propane tanks (the type commonly used for outdoor grills), dry fertilizer in a lock metal gun cabinet described as containing "eight bags (over 100 pounds) of an unknown, fertilizer-like substance and an inverted pot with a "bird's nest" of wires. There were two analog alarm clocks wired to arrangements of M-88 firecrackers. The bomber expected the M-88 firecrackers to go off and puncture the gasoline and propane tanks to spark the explosion. This clearly did not happen. Some of the M-88's ignited, as heard by nearby pedestrians and vendors, but failed to penetrate either the plastic gasoline containers or the propane tanks.
The fertilizer still in bags and clearly expected to explode or add to the impact is another sign of a bomb maker of low skill and knowledge perhaps following poor or unclear instructions. In order for an ammonium nitrate fertilizer to be transformed into an explosive, it must be combined with diesel fuel and stirred into a slurry. The fertilizer was reportedly not an ammonium nitrate based type to begin with, slurry or none.
It should be noted here that the crude, technically lacking bomb design itself should be no source of reassurance that the threat to New York City, its citizens, its tourists and its workers is minimal. It was a mistake for authorities and experts to publicly describe it as "amateurish." Americans taking in their information from news reports who see this written and hear it spoken will instinctively conclude that the threat is significantly less than feared. This is a mistake, because upwards of 80% of a successful attack comes from the motivation and desire of the attacker. This is far harder for terrorists to cultivate among recruits than skill levels and tactics. And the motivation and desire to kill innocents on New York City streets was clearly demonstrated Saturday.
....
If the Pakistani-American purchaser of the Nissan Pathfinder did not indeed meet with, conspire with and take training from the Pakistani Taliban while in Pakistan for months, Mehsud's remarks and timing will prove to be for him one of the most unlikely and unpleasant coincidences of the War on Terror. It is reasonable to conclude that the purchaser of the Nissan Pathfinder used in the bombing was not in Pakistan taking in a series of cricket matches for several months, only to return and find a newly purchased truck stolen and used in a bombing. His disappearance since the incident bears this out.
It is an error to suggest, as I have recently, that the Taliban have never made false claims of credit for attacks they had no part in. It is extremely rare, yes. But they have made at least two false claims responsibility in the past, it should be noted. As pointed out by Marc Sageman to the Wall Street Journal, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the massive northeast blackout of 2003 and also for a mass shooting in Binghamton, New York, last year. But two incidences over a several years does not make a pattern. Considering the other information beginning to take shape in the open-source, the Taliban claims look more credible with each passing day.
....
And so it is with Target New York. It is entirely possible, nay likely, that the recent Times Square car bomb was placed at the doorstep of the Viacom building's main northeast entrance because of the South Park controversy. Aired and produced by Viacom's Comedy Central, South Park's creators intended to air a depiction of the prophet Muhammed in an episode. This angered some Muslims as an affront to their beliefs, including the forbidding of any images of Muhammed. The reasonable will protest and air complaints. The violent, the extreme, the Islamist and terrorist will attack, kill, maim and destroy.
And he will use the attack as a propaganda tool to recruit and inspire others to the same. And this is the seed of what some call the "homegrown terrorist" or "homegrown jihad." But how "homegrown" can it be when the views and actions are so divorced from the civil American society? It may well be the execution of jihad from those within, but it can hardly be considered a "homegrown" expression of the civil American society. It is wholly foreign in every regard.
Regardless what term is affixed, one of the aims of the terrorists executing and/or claiming public responsibility for the Times Square bombing attempt is to inspire others within America to take up their cause. As a good friend smartly remarked, "The pursuit of those responsible plays right into the al-Qaeda playbook. A recruiting tool that offends the more gifted into action. Global insurgency works like this. All failures are successes. All successes are recruits."
We have no choice but to pursue. We are at war, a long war. A war of bombs, a war of ideas. The enemy gets a vote and a turn. We must win more than we lose. For all its complexities and the natural fears within Target New York, it's also just that simple.
No comments:
Post a Comment