Robert Heinlein once defined logic as "a way of going wrong with confidence." Today's Wall Street Journal looks at a a conclusion one reaches upon comparing the latest NIE with past ones -- a conclusion that seems, well, logical.
As recently as 2005, the consensus estimate of our spooks was that "Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons" and do so "despite its international obligations and international pressure." This was a "high confidence" judgment. The new NIE says Iran abandoned its nuclear program in 2003 "in response to increasing international scrutiny." This too is a "high confidence" conclusion. One of the two conclusions is wrong, and casts considerable doubt on the entire process by which these "estimates"--the consensus of 16 intelligence bureaucracies--are conducted and accorded gospel status.
No comments:
Post a Comment