Friday, September 24, 2004

Birds, feathers, and networks

Critics call the war in Iraq a "diversion", saying Bush should have pursued Osama bin Ladin until he was captured, killed, or proved to be out of commission.

The Belmont Club has a posting on the subject of network analysis. Figuring out the links among Hussein's family and clan helped soldiers find him, and it turned out the car window squeegee wielders on the street corners were able to lead police to more serious criminals.

It also turns out that networks -- any networks -- are limited in their function by their characteristics. A network that is designed to conduct terrorism, for example, starts to lose cohesion at about 80 members, and becomes completely unstable at 150.

John Robb's analysis indicates that you can have a small, operationally secure terrorist group, but you can't have a large, secure group without a state sponsor.

It follows that by removing state sponsors, such as the Taliban and Saddam Hussein, you make it impossible for large terrorist groups to stay together, especially long enough to commit large acts of terror.

Read the whole thing. And follow the links.

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