Thursday, February 08, 2007

Global warming won't be fixed.

George Samuelson writes in the Washington Post of his reasons why global warming will not be addressed anytime soon.

The dirty secret about global warming is this: We have no solution. About 80 percent of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), the main sources of man-made greenhouse gases. Energy use sustains economic growth, which -- in all modern societies -- buttresses political and social stability. Until we can replace fossil fuels or find practical ways to capture their emissions, governments will not sanction the deep energy cuts that would truly affect global warming.

So, even stipulating that human activity is the main, or even a major cause of global warming, we're not going to change.

If people were serious about curbing CO2 emissions, there are lots of things that would be happening now, such as the construction of nuclear power plants. That's not happening.

Furthermore, how much of a crisis will this be, even assuming it happens precisely as the IPCC computer models predict?

Since 1850, global temperatures have increased almost 1 degree Celsius. Sea level has risen about seven inches, though the connection is unclear. So far, global warming has been a change, not a calamity. The IPCC projects wide ranges for the next century: temperature increases from 1.1 degrees Celsius (2°F) to 6.4 degrees (11½°F); sea level rises from seven inches to almost two feet. People might easily adapt; or there might be costly disruptions (say, frequent flooding of coastal cities resulting from melting polar ice caps).

Gee. Two feet increase over a century. That's a quarter of an inch per year. Sure, we might have to make some adjustments, but I think there'd be plenty of time to make them.

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