Blogs

So which is it? Are blogs too commercial, or not enough? Just taking off, or doomed?

The answer to these questions is probably "yes." Which suggests that they're the wrong questions.

OK, so what's the right question? (Or what are they, if there's more than one?)

Looks like the right question is, "What is in store for blogs?"

Or maybe, a better question is, "What is in store for us on account of blogs?"

One prediction: blogs aren't going away.

Even if the biggest, richest, and most popular blogs are hugely successful financially -- and more importantly, even if they're not -- there will be millions of people out their generating and publishing their own content. Regardless of what happens, the vast majority will be doing it without being paid (they already are) and they'll be doing it because, as I noted last week, it's fun. Which is what should really worry the Big Media people, because it's something that doesn't change with the financial markets. From four years ago comes this advice: "Beware the people who are having fun competing with you!" Because it's hard to put them out of business, so long as it stays fun.

I don't think we should be thinking of blogs as competitors of newspapers or news broadcasts. Many blogs overlap a great deal with news outlets, but there are still things the news media can do that bloggers, in general, will never be able to do. For example, newspapers and TV news bureaus will have the budget to send reporters to other countries to gather news, and the average blogger can only report on events in his or her own back yard.

Bloggers can, however, carry out news analysis. And chances are, no matter what any newspaper reports on, there's likely to be at least one blogger – sometimes quite a few – with something to say. Some of these folks will be all wrong, but some of them will be very much right.

In a way, this is part of an ongoing tension between mass production and customization. It would seem most efficient if we all met our needs in the same way. If we all dressed in the same way, there'd be no need to have a multitude of different clothing manufacturers. If we all took mass transit everywhere, there'd be no need for individual cars. And if we all get our news from big outlets, there'll be no need for news blogs.

But aside from the fact that people like to customize their lives, any time a business lacks competition, it gets lazy, and its quality goes downhill. Just as foreign imports forced American car companies to shape up, blogs are forcing news outlets to shape up in the areas where they have to compete – news analysis. Relatively few people will insist on reading only analysis they agree with, but when they read one they disagree with, it had better make logical sense. If it's a badly thought-out argument, the reader who disagrees with it may not know enough to pick it apart, but chances are, he can find a blogger who does.