Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Bird flu – how lethal?

A recent study questions the 50% mortality rate for bird flu.

The Swedish study, published yesterday in Archives of Internal Medicine, said a survey of Vietnamese showed that most people who handled dead or sick poultry reported mild flulike symptoms but did not have the severe reaction health officials said could sweep the globe.

Unfortunately, these folks were not tested for the flu virus. However, it would make sense for the mortality rate to be a lot lower than the conventional wisdom would have it, if the confirmed cases represent only the sickest patients. People who don't feel that sick don't go to the doctor, and their flues aren't counted.

No comments: