Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Signs for the Economy

Apparently, underwear sales are a leading indicator.  Sales seem to have bottomed out, and this is a sign the recession may be ending.
And jobless claims seem to have peaked -- another leading indicator.

When will this horrible recession be over? According to one surprising source, it's over right now.

The source is Robert J. Gordon, an acclaimed macroeconomist and professor at Northwestern University. It's surprising to learn he thinks the recession is over, because he is one of seven members of the elite Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis. These are the people who decide officially, for the record books, when recessions begin and end -- usually many months after the fact, when the decision is really obvious. I'm unaware of any previous case in which a member of this committee has stepped forward and declared the end of a recession in real time.

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